Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 1.051362 1.233782 1.438425 1.685056 1.974339 2.303051 2.705172
2024-10-06 0.808528 1.063296 1.383090 1.814281 2.381201 3.102256 4.090998
2024-10-13 0.616186 0.878666 1.235529 1.756763 2.500192 3.524975 5.049820
2024-10-20 0.490552 0.746850 1.118563 1.697847 2.580472 3.879254 5.944571
2024-10-27 0.402037 0.647574 1.024043 1.644464 2.645182 4.203151 6.827127
2024-11-03 0.351679 0.595720 0.988963 1.670271 2.826711 4.720407 8.078544
2024-11-10 0.328329 0.582394 1.010837 1.787941 3.170129 5.540817 9.948596
2024-11-17 0.298693 0.552805 0.999667 1.845187 3.415389 6.226269 11.686275
2024-11-24 0.267230 0.514522 0.966697 1.856669 3.577309 6.782930 13.269509
2024-12-01 0.237346 0.474247 0.923579 1.841305 3.683985 7.248200 14.743142
2024-12-08 0.212692 0.440185 0.886903 1.831895 3.798637 7.740711 16.338694
2024-12-15 0.194533 0.416334 0.866540 1.851399 3.972622 8.371561 18.307399
2024-12-22 0.170690 0.377801 0.812386 1.795629 3.987566 8.691272 19.695591
2024-12-29 0.165936 0.379784 0.843594 1.928770 4.432435 9.991462 23.461248
2025-01-05 0.146212 0.345380 0.791039 1.867307 4.432245 10.313791 25.045828
2025-01-12 0.129067 0.314282 0.741343 1.804638 4.419014 10.602882 26.595616
2025-01-19 0.114539 0.287201 0.697016 1.747871 4.410775 10.901184 28.214081
2025-01-26 0.106798 0.275577 0.687682 1.775313 4.614004 11.739078 31.329974
2025-02-02 0.105104 0.278951 0.715411 1.900442 5.084501 13.310783 36.615046
2025-02-09 0.100030 0.272782 0.718272 1.961318 5.396098 14.520897 41.126147
2025-02-16 0.093079 0.260558 0.703768 1.973527 5.578345 15.416312 44.911567
2025-02-23 0.085584 0.245716 0.680213 1.957189 5.678646 16.103137 48.211758
2025-03-02 0.079086 0.232734 0.659940 1.947182 5.795729 16.854348 51.827010